Chicago Agriculture Commodities Finished Higher
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agriculture grain futures finished higher in the week ended 5 May, as cold and wet weather in Midwest and Western Plains continues to affect planting and growth of the crops.
Despite uncertainty over US Wheat supplies in Y 2017, and excessive rainfall and lingering cold in the South and East of Midwest, CBOT futures remain unable to break out of the long established range of 3.55-3.85
Analysts expect this range to hold into early Summer, when crop conditions begin to correlate with final yield. It is noted that fundamental input remains mixed or neutral.
Noticeable dryness is developing in Mato Grosso and Goias in Brazil, which account for 45-50% of winter Corn production of the country.
Wheat futures ended the week with gains, though values settled well off the week’s highs. Massive uncertainty plagues production estimates across the Western Plains.
Lasting rallies remain capped by abundant old crop stocks in exportable positions and improving conditions across Europe, West Ukraine and Russia, which combine for 30% of world production.
It is noted that the domestic Russian cash market is right at intervention price levels, EU cash prices remain supported, and Southside risk is equally limited now.
Agriculture analysts’ work indicates that both the Bulls & Bears will struggle unless a dire drought develops in the Black Sea or Europe.
They said end users should extend coverage into late Y 2017 or early Y 2018 on any 5-15 cent break while upside price targets rest at 5-5.20 basis spot CBOT futures.
It was a higher week of trade in the Soybean market, with support coming from fund short covering. Heavy rains and cold temperatures across the Corn belt kept planting progress at a standstill.
It’s been a less than perfect start to the new crop year and the yield uncertainty is offering support. Further planting delays are likely to add to Soybean acres. But with prices under 10, farmers are slow sellers, while funds are now seeing minimal returns on their sizable net short Soy position.
US and world supplies are large, and the longer term outlook is still Bearish. However, the market needs assurance that the US crop gets planted. Most analysts’ view is that rallies back to 10 or better should be used for both old an new crop sales.