The study with preliminary data on the tax collection of August indicates that the result should surprise positively and open space for a possible release of resources in the budget review scheduled for this week.
After the worst result for a month in July since 2010, federal tax revenues must have grown by 7.9% in August compared to the same month last year, after discounting inflation, according to a survey by economists José Roberto Afonso and Vilma da Concepción Pinto, of the Getulio Vargas Foundation, obtained by Folha newspaper.
The recovery came especially from revenue with taxation on the profit of financial institutions, a sector that had been pulling the collection down in the previous months, in addition to Refis.
Although the final version of the tax debt repayment program is still under negotiation in Congress, data from the economic team show the entry of at least R $ 1.9 billion last month.
In August, the total collected by the Internal Revenue Service was R $ 99.5 billion.
That is by far the most robust expansion of the year. In June, which until now was the best month of 2017, revenue had grown 3% compared to the same period last year.
In Siafi data, in August, IRPJ (Corporate Income Tax) rose 21.3%, while CSLL (Social Contribution on Net Profit) increased by 22.5%, with a the banks, 56% and 73%, respectively. Among companies in other sectors, growth was 1% and 10%.
According to Afonso, the very poor comparison base and a probable reversal of provisions made for doubtful debtors justify the rather atypical performance of the financial sector.
Afonso says that the numbers of the collection can indicate a turning point, helped by the indications of economic recovery. He says, however, that it is still too early to say if this trajectory is sustainable: “You have to be careful, because the result of August comes from few taxes and few sectors.”
According to the economist, of the increase verified in the corporate income tax, 40% is explained by the performance of the financial sector, and 60%, by the rubric “other”, in which it is part of the collection of Refis.
The evaluation is that many companies that were waiting for the conclusion of the negotiations in Congress, without being sure that the term would be extended, decided to join the program, although the most advantageous conditions were under discussion.
On August 30, one day before the government extended membership, 20,000 applications were filed to enter the program.
The politicians allied with President Michel Temer have been trying for weeks to close an agreement to ensure approval of an intermediate proposal – in the version of the Revenue and that of Deputy Newton Cardoso Jr.
The forecast is that the matter will be discussed again this week, but with Temer and the minister Henrique Meirelles (Treasury) out of the country, chances of voting fell.