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CESB: Soybean crop steady, cautious on high

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Although the scenario is pointing to few changes in the soybean crop 2017/2018, experts warn that the producer keeps his attention focused on the market, avoiding periods of volatility interfere in the profitability of soybean crops in the country. For the vice president of the Strategic Committee Soja Brazil (CESB), Leonardo Sologuren, the farmer must be attentive to the relations of exchange. “We know that planning is critical if the producer is to succeed. Realizing how many soy sacks it currently needs to buy inputs for the next crop is critical to maintaining the balance of the accounts, “he explains.

Overall, international markets are seeing the global supply of soybeans steadily. In recent weeks, commodity prices and production estimates have remained at the same level as last year. In Brazil, the expectation is that something around 111 million tons of the grain is harvested, representing a slightly lower harvest than the previous one, about 1%. Among the factors that influenced this small fall is the climate, which in some states caused the planting and harvesting to suffer delays.

Meanwhile, the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) of USP, says that only more expressive shocks to global supply can have a more serious impact on prices in the course of 2018. Brazilian exports are expected to grow by more than 3.5% to about 65.5 million tonnes this season. This may be a reflection of the USDA’s downward revision of the local soybean export expectation, which raises the expectation of final stocks for the 2017/2018 harvest.

Even with the stable scenario the producer can closely monitor the exchange rate variations and interest rates in the United States. “If the US currency appreciates, Brazilian soybeans can become more competitive, even if slightly. This may represent gains in sales contracts for the Brazilian producer. There is always the possibility that, instead of selling soybeans in May, the income will be realized in June, “says Sologuren, who is an agronomist with a master’s degree in economics.

Still according to the expert, the current political scenario of Brazil, which has elections in October, needs to be closely monitored by the producers. “Despite the apparent separation between politics and economy, the producer wants to know the direction that the country will take with the election, held in the second half, as this may determine economic policies to reduce bottlenecks, such as storage and infrastructure for the flow of harvest “, ends Sologuren.