Just less than five months of the first round of the elections, a new survey from Parana Research institute released for the still nebulous presidential dispute. With regard to the last nationwide survey made by this institute in December, broadly speaking, few changes were observed.
Federal deputy Jair Bolsonaro kept the lead in the scenario without former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, with 20.5% of the intentions to vote in the first scenario considered. Just behind the lawmaker Bolsonaro, the former senator Marina Silva, with 12%, and the former minister of the Supreme Court, Joaquim Barbosa, with 11%. White, null and undecided continue to add up to more than 20%.
“There have been no major changes in the scenario, and I think the trend, unless a new fact arises, is that we continue with this environment of unpredictability. Parties have very little scope to create political facts to change the situation at this time,” said Carlos Eduardo Borenstein, of the consultancy Arko Advice. “The environment must remain both stable and uncertain at least until the national party conventions, which will define candidatures and alliances for the electoral race.”he added.
Even so, the survey of the Paraná Institute brings questions that can be analyzed. Here are some highlights from the Arko Advice expert on this story:
1. The ceiling of Jair Bolsonaro
One more poll showed the deputy’s resilience in leading the race. On the other hand, it was also evident its difficulties in going beyond the threshold of 20% of the intentions of voting. The stagnation of the parliamentarian, although at the head of the dispute, may indicate that he reached his top, not being able to advance on a less radicalized segment of the electorate on the right.
2. Potential for center-left
The applications of this political spectrum showed good performance in the research, despite the persistence of a climate of fragmentation that also affects it. One of the few news that the survey brought in quantitative terms about the presidential race itself was a breakthrough above the margin of error of Joaquim Barbosa, the only name that has gained more positive exposure in the media in recent days.
In addition to the good performance in the survey, Barbosa has the lowest rejection rate among the main names placed: 45.5%. In addition to Marina Silva’s intentions, the former magistrate would have up to 34.5% in the scenario without PT’s candidature. A plaque involving both names, though considered very competitive, is still seen as unlikely at this point in the presidential race.
3. Desire for renewal
There is a rejection of more than 60% for the names presently considered the main candidates for the presidency by the PSDB and PT. According to the survey, 61.3% of the voters would not vote at all on former governor Geraldo Alckmin, while 66.1% deny support to former mayor Fernando Haddad , who was pointed out as the main alternative to the PT if the scenario of non-viability is confirmed of the candidacy of former president Lula da Silva.
The names Petista and Toucan lead the rejection among those evaluated in the research, which reveals the size of the challenge for both sides in the attempt to maintain prominence. Another indication of anti-establishment sentimentappears in the simulations for the first shift.
Adding the votes of Jair Bolsonaro, Marina Silva and Joaquim Barbosa, there is 43.5% in the scenario without Lula in the dispute. Although these names are very distinctive, they carry in common an image for the most distant voter of formal politics, despite the fact that the first two have considerable experience in parliament. The three capitalize more easily a flag of political renewal compared to their opponents.