Despite some points of protest still scattered throughout Brazil, the truck drivers’ standstill gives clear signs that it has come to an end. In all the states, life begins to return to normal rhythm and the table of shortages begins its reversion: the fuel arrives at the stations and the food goes back to the supermarkets. The effects of the crisis caused by the protests, however, must last for a long time.
The Federal Highway Police (PRF) reported on Thursday May 31st religious holiday in the country, that there are reduced points of concentration on federal highways. On the roads that cut the Federal District, all points of concentration of drivers were demobilized, according to the corporation. After days of intense protests, the PRF confirmed that 11 states, beyond the DF, have no more demonstrations. Demonstration points were recorded in federal roads BRs 020, 040, 050, 060, 070 and in the Surrounding Region.
Not all sectors have losses. Those who have already made these accounts shows that the loss will be accounted for in the billions. The number of sectors consulted by the report already reaches at least R $ 75 billion in losses.
But the impact on the economy will be much greater. Economists consider the effects of the strike on the downward revisions they have been making to the performance of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The number, close to 3% at the beginning of the year, is now 2%. And there are other effects. The federal government fears that the stalled drivers will pave the way for other strikes that have a strong impact in the country. The tankers have already taken this route.
Preliminary projections of several segments of the economy after ten days of truck drivers’ strike point to losses of more than R $ 75 billion. In some cases, the damage may still increase even after the movement ends, depending on the type of activity, the resumption may take from one week to 20 days.
There is also concern about how things will turn around. “We do not know yet, for example, how the freight increase will be priced,” says José Carlos Martins, president of the Brazilian Chamber of Construction Industry (Cbic). “It gives shivers just thinking.”
The industry estimates that it has stopped generating R $ 3.8 billion so far, and it will take two to three weeks to fully resume activities.
The National Confederation of Shopkeepers (CNDL) estimated that the trade and services areas ceased to bill about R $ 27 billion between days 21 and 28.
“It’s clear the inconvenience caused by widespread shortages, which can cause even greater to the country harm, such as rising unemployment, lack of food, inventories, low-flow sales and damage to economic development,” says the president of the Minas Gerais Fecomércio , Lúcio Emílio de Faria Júnior.
Supermarkets account for R $ 2.7 billion in losses. For fuel distributors, the losses already amount to R $ 11.5 billion.
With fewer roadblocks and a slow return to fuel supplies, some companies are resuming operations. Of the 167 poultry, egg and pig production units nationwide, 46 restarted activities on Wednesday (30), reports the Brazilian Association of Animal Proteins (ABPA). The companies of the sector accumulate losses of R $ 3 billion and lost 70 million birds, killed by lack of ration. With part of the supply resumed, the mortality must end.
According to the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporters (ABIEC), the beef cattle production chain stopped moving between R $ 8 billion and R $ 10 billion.
The milk producers lost R $ 1 billion, part of which with the disposal of more than 300 million liters of milk. The Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil (CNA) estimates that producers in general must take from six months to a year to restructure.
Meanwhile, the textile sector estimates losses of R $ 1.8 billion and, until this Wednesday, still had about 70% of companies stopped or about to stop. The Brazilian Association of the Textile and Apparel Industry (Abit) predicts that it will take at least 20 days for the situation to be normalized.
In the auto industry almost all factories have been standing since Friday. Antonio Megale, president of the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers (Anfavea), says that “most will resume production gradually from Monday (4/6).” The Fiat units in Minas Gerais and the Jeep in Pernambuco operate again this Thursday.
Anfavea did not report losses, but, based on the average production of vehicles in April, about 51 thousand vehicles are no longer manufactured. The result of this month could interrupt an 18-month high in the year-on-year comparison.
By Tuesday, industry sales had fallen 11 percent from April (to 192.8 thousand units), but are still expected to exceed the May 2017 volume of 195.6 thousand units.
The chemical industry adds R $ 2.5 billion in loss of revenue and calculates in ten days the period for resumption of activities.