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Focus: Central bank survey lowers 2018 growth forecast to 2.18%



If inflation should end 2018 with a bigger brand, the forecast for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is downward, as the financial market reduced the growth rate from 2.37% to 2.18%. This was the fifth retraction followed by the sum of all goods and services produced in the country.

For the coming year, the market also raised the expectation for the IPCA, the indicator went from 4% to 4.01%, below the target of 4.25%, with a tolerance interval of 2.75% and 5% 75%.

The highlight of the Focus Bulletin comes after the end of the 11-day truck stoppage. However, even with the high, the brand remains below the central inflation target set by the National Monetary Council (CMN) of 4.50%. The result still follows within the lower and upper limits of the index, which are respectively 3% and 6%.

Four weeks ago, a similar survey of the country’s leading financial institutions showed GDP was expected to expand 2.7%.

The downgrade was blamed on a slower than expected rate of economic recovery and crippling truckers’ strikes in May that brought deliveries and supplies to a standstill for 11 days, causing shortages of fuel and fresh produce.

For 2019, analysts maintained their growth forecast at 3%. Financial analysts maintained their benchmark interest rate forecast for 2018 at the current rate of 6.5%.

The projected exchange rate for the end of the year rose slightly from 3.48 to 3.5 Reais to the U.S. dollar, as it did for 2019 (from 3.47 to 3.5 Reais to the U.S. dollar).

Brazil’s expected trade surplus for 2018 went from US$ 57.15 billion to US$ 57 billion, with the 2019 forecast adjusted from US$ 49.8 billion to US$ 49.3 billion.

Projected foreign direct investment in Brazil remained at US$ 75 billion for 2018 and US$ 80 billion for 2019.