Soybean trading in Brazil, which was already buoyed by the buyer’s tip, given the uncertainty about freight, is likely to be further harmed now that oilseed prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange are falling sharply, discouraging the selling side, according to experts heard by Reuters.
According to him, producers took advantage of the dollar’s rise
against the real and managed to market a good volume of soybeans before the protesters of the truck drivers and later reflections, including the table of minimum freights that scared away buyers for short-term deals.
In this scenario, Gomes explained, the soybean farmer even prefers to wait for a better time to sell his product. It is estimated in the market that up to 30 percent of this year’s record harvest of almost 120 million tons has not yet been traded.
“The producer withdrew. No one has to come to market desperate to sell,” said Moema Damo brokerage Bombardieri, CEO of Moema Brokerage grains in Santo Rosa (RS). For her, the soybean market “may stall even more,” as participants now look to the US crop, at the final planting stage, which is expected to come in handy, further pushing up prices on the stock market of Chicago.
Along the same lines, the Chicago Cereal Brokerage in Spring
(MT) said that with this decline in prices, it will be “unfeasible” for the producer to sell.
Since May 21, when truck driver protests have begun, domestic soybean yields have soared 3 percent to about 83 reais per bag, according to monitoring by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), Esalq / USP, reflecting both the internal uncertainties and the tumble in Chicago and the broad outlook.
Experts have speculated that an improvement in Brazilian soybean premiums , a direct result of the US-China dispute,
may help unlock some sales, as the trend is for Beijing to turn to the domestic product.
On Tuesday, the soybean premium put in Paranaguá (PR) for September, before the value in Chicago, reached 1.70 dollars per bushel, according to Cepea.
“Some businesses started to go from September onwards, and for June, July, there will be no buyer … But going forward,
with this more intense fight, the businesses that would be from China buying from the US must be from China buying from Brazil,” said analyst Paulo Molinari of Safras &Market.
According to him, who has already received business reports this week, the average premium of Brazilian soybeans is usually US $ 0.60 per bushel.
Oil prices have rebounded on Tuesday amid growing trade tensions between the United States and China, which are working on retaliation for various goods from both countries. Earlier, commodity prices have reached the lowest level since 2008 for a first contract in Chicago.
“We are in a month of June with little commercialization.
Prices have had a very expressive drop, they went from 10.50 dollars a bushel in May to below 9 dollars now … The producer will hold to wait for a new sale opportunity,” said the analyst Adriano Gomes, of AgRural consultancy.