Home Politics 2018 elections Evolution of 2018 electoral forecast is released by XP

Evolution of 2018 electoral forecast is released by XP



Brazilian investment company XP conducted an opinion poll on the October presidential election during the week of June 13-20. The survey was released to an audience of subscribers to the XP bulletin. The information presents various graphs and statistics.

According this Poll the week shows little or no change in first-round scenarios. In second-round scenarios, Bolsonaro continues to recede and fell between 1 p.p. and 2 p.p. (within the margin of error) in all four scenarios in which he is considered. He still looses to Lula (33% to 41%) and remains technically tied to Geraldo Alckmin (32% to 31%), Marina Silva (32% to 36%) and Ciro Gomes (33% to 32%).

The majority of the voters doesnt care about the elections yet. On the one hand, as the World Cup kicks in the number of voters uninterested in the election (not interested + bit interested) grew from 51% in the previous week to 56% now. On the other hand, even with the start of the most popular sport event in the world, it wasn’t able to curb the rejection rate of the current administration that marked a new high at 85%.

For the first time, the electorate was asked about their opinion on controversial themes. Bolsonaro’s voters were those most in favor of the right to keep and bear arms, to reduce the legal age from 18 years to 16 years old, death penalty, military intervention and privatizations. Geraldo Alckmin’s voters, however were those most in favor of a pension reform.

This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”). XPI and its affiliates, parent, shareholders, directors, officers, employees, and licensors will not be liable (individually, jointly, or severally) to you or any other person as a result of your access, reception, or use of the information contained in this communication.

All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of transmission and these, plus any other information contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation.

This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. This material (including any attachments) is confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only.

In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 43/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979.

Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais, políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.