Soybean prices in the United States and Brazil, countries that concentrate around 80% of global exports, have taken very different paths thanks to the commercial war of Donald Trump.
In the US, the average fell to $ 7.79 a bushel this week, the lowest in nearly a decade, according to the Minneapolis Grain Exchange index. The tariffs imposed by China on US goods, including agricultural products, have already entered into force.
Meanwhile, exporters in Brazil have maintained a favorable moment. The price of soybeans to be shipped in August at the Port of Paranaguá is $ 2.21 / bushel above the futures in Chicago, the biggest difference since the data began to be compiled in 2014. The premium for oilseed more than has tripled since the end of May, as reported by Commodity 3.
“The premiums reflect the increased possibility of China becoming more dependent on Brazilian soy,” says market analyst Safras e Mercado, Luis Fernando Roque.
The rally means that the increase in premium paid to the Brazilian grain is equivalent to two-thirds of the cost of tariffs that China intends to charge on US shipments, points to FC Stone.
So far, good crushing margins are helping to keep Brazil’s soy-heated demand from Brazil, even as the premiums escalate. China bought about 1.1 million tons of the country last week, while in the same period, there were no purchases from the United States, according to China’s National Grains and Oils Center.
The move is unusual for this time of year, when China usually begins to reserve US shipments in the months leading up to the American harvest. Inventories in Brazil are already falling, after shipments peaked in May.