With today’s result, the US dollar is now up 2.53 percent in the week and 1.23 percent in the month.
Dollar rose 1.00 percent on Thursday, Aug 9, and reached its highest value in three weeks, quoted at R$ 3.8017 in the spot market. The increase occurred in the midst of reduced turnover and was driven by external and mainly internal factors. Outside, the US currency advanced against strong emerging currencies. In Brazil, the expectation for the first televised presidential debate tonight has shrunk a sizeable number of investors, who preferred to wait for more information before setting positions.
“We are already entering the period in which the market is very sensitive to electoral debates and polls. With super cautious investors, the operations are defensive, with ‘short shots’,” said Hideaki Iha, currency trader at Fair Brokerage.
According to Iha, the performance of the Toucan candidate in the electoral debates and surveys is what can set the threshold of the dollar in the coming weeks. “The market has already priced the most important news so far, which was the support of the Centrão to Alckmin, not Ciro Gomes (PDT). If Alckmin does not take revenge, surely the dollar will seek new levels,” he said.
For José Faria Junior, director of Wagner Investimentos, the bullishness of the currency can still be considered a normal correction process, due to the expected increase in market volatility. He warned, however, of the risk of the quotation breaking the region of $ 3.80 and accelerating the pace, towards the interval between $ 3.85 and $ 3.90.
At the high of the day, the spot dollar came to R$ 3.8201 (+ 1.49 percent). In the futures market, the contract for September reached the maximum of R$ 3.8330 (+ 1.36 percent).
The main expectation of the day was related to the debate of the candidates for the Presidency of the Republic, which takes place today on TV Bandeirantes, at 10 pm. The event is regarded as the effective start of the election campaign on TV. According to analysts, its importance is mainly related to the large number of voters undecided or unwilling to vote for any candidate. From the exposure of the campaigns on TV, the expectation is to see how this portion of voters behaves. That is why polls also gain more importance from now on. For tomorrow, a new poll of intent to vote is expected, with voters from São Paulo.
In the international market, the dollar’s rise was influenced by a number of factors. In Europe, the caution of the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding trade frictions involving the United States depreciated the euro. Among the emerging countries, the dollar reached a new historical high against the Turkish lira, still due to the geopolitical tensions between Turkey and the US, which imposed sanctions against authorities in the Euro-Asian country.