The year 2018 has marked one of the most critical moments of history for producers of poultry, eggs and pork from Brazil.
The suspension of Brazilian exporting plants of poultry meat by the European Union, the continued Russian embargo on pork, the new criteria institution halal by Arab countries and the application of misleading measures of anti-dumping duty by China were some of the factors that put the industry in a challenging period, whose summit took place at the end of May, during the strike of truckers.
Several internal factors impacted on the loss of competitiveness of production of poultry and pork.
In this context, we highlight the increase in production costs, especially for high corn and soybean meal. For maize, the average increase is 53% over the same period last year (compared to August 2017). The rise of soybean meal ton exceeds 43%. The exchange factor and reduced supply of grain this harvest substantially impacted this picture. As a direct consequence of this rise – besides the fact that raising the price of transport – was the maize imported ad Mercosur countries, held earlier this semester.
The freight tabulation is also a competitiveness loss factor. The strike of truckers showed Brazil the great dependence of poultry and swine road logistics. Uses for this, dedicated transport – for health issues – both for animals and for products. Exactly for this reason, they are loyal transport, mostly over short distances. With the new table, the logistics costs of the sectors has an average elevation of 35% – reaching close to 80% in some embodiments, as the transport of feed.
With the sum of these factors – freight tabulation and rising production costs – meat prices and other products of poultry and pigs tend to increase around 15% for the final consumer.
The losses could be higher were it not for the strong diversification of export markets of animal protein in Brazil. In the international market, most of the exports that were destined to Russia had Asian countries (China and Hong Kong) and South America (Chile, Uruguay and Argentina) as the destination. In for chicken meat, China, Mexico, Yemen, UAE and other markets have reduced the impact of the EU embargo.
FORECAST: The production of poultry meat must submit reduction of 1% and 2% this year, compared to 13.058 million tons produced in 2017, revolving around 13 million tonnes.
This reduction is drawn by the reduction in broiler housing estimated between 3% and 5%, impacting the available supply of chicken.
In early 2018, the projection initially drawn by the ABPA era of growth between 2% and 4%.
The per capita consumption estimated for this year is 42 kilos (in 2017, were 42.07 kilos)
FORECAST: Exports of chicken meat will shrink between 2% and 3% this year, compared to 4.32 million tons shipped in 2017, this year reached 4.2 million tons.
In early 2018, the projection initially drawn by the ABPA was growth between 1% and 3%.
Exports 2018 (Jan / July)
Brazilian exports of chicken meat reached 463,100 tons in July. The number, 20.6% higher than the 384,000 tons exported in the seventh month of 2017, is the largest monthly flow of shipments on record in the industry. (PREVIEW: For August, the export estimate exceeds 400,000 tons, which should put the monthly average of exports this year close to the historical averages recorded in 2016 and 2017).
The export performance generated revenues of $ 711.1 million, 15.7% above the balance achieved in July last year, with US $ 614.8 million.
With the significantly higher number of exports last month, the balance of shipments recorded in 2018 reduced levels of accumulated losses compared to the previous year.
Between January and July this year, were exported 2.3 million tons, 8.2% below the 2.505 million tonnes effect the first seven months of 2017 (between January and June, the decline was 13.5%).
Revenue from international sales this year totaled US $ 3.675 billion, 12.4% lower number than the $ 4.197 billion achieved last year.
Main destination, Asia imported 790,000 tonnes between January and July (+ 1.4%). To the Middle East, in second place, they were shipped 752,100 tons (-10%). The countries of Africa, with 323,400 tons (-15.2%), European Union, with 139,500 tons (-29.2%), the Americas, with 188,900 tons (+ 8%) , Extra US and Europe, with 60 tons (-26.9%) and Oceania, with 1.2 tons (-3%) complete the list.
FORECAST: The production of pork meat should present increase of 1% this year, compared to 3.75 million tons produced in 2017, with volume close to 3.8 million ton.
In early 2018, the projection initially drawn by the ABPA era of growth between 2% and 3%.
The per capita consumption estimated for this year is stable (in 2017 were 14.7 kilos).
FORECAST: The pork exports should shrink from 10% to 12% this year, compared to 697,000 tons shipped in 2017, leaving around 620,000 tons.
In early 2018, the projection initially drawn by the ABPA era of growth between 4% and 5%.
Exports 2018 (Jan / July)
The pork exports in July totaled 68,100 tons, 18% higher than the same period last year when 57,700 tons were shipped. (PREVIEW: For August, the export estimate approaches 68 000 tons).
With this performance, the industry’s revenue reached $ 119.2 million, 12.4% fewer than the balance of July 2017, with US $ 136.1 million.
Exports between January and July totaled 346,500 tonnes, 13.6% less than the 401,000 tons shipped in the first seven months of last year.
Sales revenues reached $ 686.54 million, a result 27.8% lower than the $ 950.8 million achieved in 2017.
Asian countries follow as the main destination for Brazilian exports, with 219,000 tons exported between January and July this year, 58.6% shrinkage in the previous year.
For the countries of the Americas, were shipped in the same period 70,800 tons (+ 20.1%). Already Africa was the destination of 22.7 thousand tons (+ 18.2%). The countries of Europe Extra EU, with 5 tons (-96.7%) complete the list.
FORECAST: Egg production should present elevation of up to 10% this year, compared to 39.9 billion units produced in 2017, reaching 44.2 billion units.
The per capita consumption estimated for this year is 212 units (in 2017, there were 192 units)
In early 2018, the projection initially drawn by the ABPA was stability.
Exports (January / July)
Exports of eggs totaled 5.8 thousand tons from January to July, volume 59% higher than 3660 tons shipped in the same period 2017. In revenue, an increase of 84%, with $ 9.33 million dollars this year, compared with $ 5.07 million in 2017.