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Soy Premiums Retreat in Brazil After G20 But Does Not Define the Trend

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Donald Trump and Xi Jinping gathered, dined together Saturday night at the G20 meeting in the Argentine capital Buenos Aires, reported a truce in the commercial war that has already given its first signs since the beginning of the year and the first result was the next: shy and still fragile prices for soybean prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange. In Brazil, prizes practically maintained.

“It is a truce that was already aligned. It changes little, but it already points to a solution path, although it is still far,” explains the director and consultant of SIMConsult, Lions Severus.

The market, experts say, only deals more optimistically with the negotiations ahead, especially in these 90 days of a momentary “ceasefire.” Without an agreement, China is not expected to return, at least at this point, to buying back large volumes of US soybeans and ressuring the pace of global soy trade before the trade war.

The US and Chinese presidents have proposed to pause tariffs and, consequently, the three-month retaliations and the practical effects of this measure have not yet been fully absorbed, understood and reflected. The speculations continue, mainly, on the premiums paid by the Brazilian soybean from the perspective of the Brazilian producer.

On Monday, the shortest delivery positions – December and January – in the port of Paranaguá fell 11.54% to US $ 1.15 on the values ​practiced on the Chicago Stock Exchange. On the other hand, February / 19 was at the same US $ 1.15, but up 15%, while the March / 19 remained stable at US $ 0.70 on the CBOT.