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Brazilian Poultry and Swine Production Will Be Lower This Year, Says the ABPA

Data collected by the association indicate more adjusted production to demand in the domestic and international market

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Brazil is expected to end the year with a production of poultry and pigs more adjusted, designs the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA). The information was presented in a press conference on Thursday (13), in São Paulo.

According to a survey done by the association, the production of poultry meat is expected to total this year 12.82 million tons, 1.7% lower than the 13.05 million tonnes produced last year. Segment exports will close the year with a total of 4.1 million tons, 5.1% lower volume compared to 4.32 million tons exported in 2017. With a domestic supply of 8.73 million tons, consumption per capita chicken meat tends to grow 0.63% to 41.8 kilos in 2018.

The pork production should present shrinkage of 3.2% to 3.63 million tons. In 2017 it was produced 3.75 million tons. Segment shipments are expected to total 640,000 tonnes, 8% lower than the 697,000 tons exported in 2017. Faced with a domestic supply of 3.07 million units, per capita pork consumption is expected to be 14.35 kg this year, 2.6% less than the consumption registered in 2017.

In a positive flow, egg production should provide up to 10% increase in 2018 compared to 39.9 billion units produced in 2017, reaching 44.2 billion units. Segment’s exports will exceed the 10 800 tonnes in growth rate 80% higher than realized last year. The per capita consumption of eggs will reach the milestone of 212 units, which exceeds by 10.4% the index recorded last year.

JANUARY-NOVEMBER EXPORTS: total exports of chicken meat in the first nine months of the year reached 3.748 million tons, 6.3% lower compared to 3.999 million tons shipped between January and November 2017. Sales of chicken meat They generated $ 5.99 billion in revenue in the period, 10.8% lower balance compared to US $ 6.712 billion during the previous year.

Total shipments of pork reached 589,200 tons in 2018, 8.4% lower volume compared to 643,500 tons shipped between January and November 2017. The balance of revenue in the period is US $ 1,105 billion, figure 26.8% less than in the first 11 months of 2017 to $ 1,509 billion.

In the case of eggs sector, total exports reached 9991 tons, 83.9% higher than 5434 tons shipped in the same period of 2017. In terms of revenue, sales reached $ 15.1 million, 101.9% above the US $ 7.4 million carried out between January and November 2017.

FACTORS OF THE YEAR: According to the president of ABPA, Francisco Turra, among the positive factors that occurred over 2018 are enabling 26 new plants for chicken meat exports to Mexico, the viability of the Cambodian market for Brazilian poultry sector and the opening of the South Korean and Indian markets for pork. Russia, after 11 months of negotiations, also reopened its market to the pig sector.

Another relevant point of 2018, according to Turra is the current health crisis in China. “The historic slaughter of animals in the largest producer of pork in the world should increase the demand for meat from countries that now provide the Chinese market. Market information indicates that a gap of about 4 million tonnes (according to information gathered by the consulting firm Asia Agro Alliance) as a direct impact on African swine fever outbreaks, “he explains.

Still on China, according to the executive director of ABPA, Ricardo Santin, it is in final negotiations between Chinese and Brazilians for building Price Undertaking Agreement (PU) for Brazilian exports of chicken meat, which should suspend the provisional anti-dumping duty surcharges applied by China. “The PU proposals were delivered by companies to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce this week. Important factor: even with the application of tariffs, chicken meat exports to China should end the year 10% higher than those made in 2017, “he says.

This year, are relevant factors, too, the delisting of 20 plants (with eight continued exporting chicken meat in natura without added salt) by the European Union and the amendment of the criteria for slaughter for the import of poultry meat by Saudi Arabia. In the latter case, as Santin, changes to market readjustment resulted in a greater decrease to 100 thousand tons in Brazilian exports – one of the markets that more reduced imports in 2018.

They are also among the relevant factors of the year the 10 – day standstill on Brazilian roads, with the strike of truck drivers. Millions of birds have died during the 10 days of downtime. The impacts exceeded R $ 3.1 billion – R $ 1.5 billion unrecoverable. In addition to the losses, the strike brought to the agenda tabulating freight. On health issues, the sectors of poultry, eggs, and pigs depend on dedicated transport called, who are loyal and meet short distances. With the new table, overall logistics costs of the sectors have an average elevation of 35