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Grain Harvest Forecasts High in Brazil

IBGE forecasts a 3.1% higher harvest in 2019. The Conab estimate is 4.2% higher in the 2018/2019 crop year

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Brazilian grain harvest may increase by 3.1% in 2019, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics ( IBGE ). For the National Supply Company ( Conab ), production is expected to grow 4.2% in the 2018/19 crop year. The data were released on Thursday (10) by the two institutions. The difference in numbers occurs because Conab adopts the concept of the crop year, which begins in September of one year and ends in August of the next. The IBGE considers the calendar year.

In this fourth survey of the grain harvest of Conab, the estimate is a harvest of 237.3 million tons. The planted area is expected to be 62.5 million hectares, an increase of 1.2%, compared to the 2017/18 harvest.

Among the products that showed growth are the first maize crop, which increased by 0.4% in the cultivated area and can reach production of 27.5 million tons. When added to the two grain crops, growth increases to 12.9% over the 2017/18 cycle, recording production of 91.2 million tons.

For Conab, cotton was also the highlight in the period, with planting concentration in January, and a growth of more than 25.3% in the area and 20.3% in production. In the first peanut crop, the positive variation is 10% in relation to the last harvest, and the harvest can reach 551.7 thousand tons.

For soybeans, if the projection is positive in 1.7% in the area of planting, but the production expects to fall of 0.4%, to 118.8 million tons. Meanwhile, rice is expected to harvest 7.1% less, with 11.2 million tonnes. First-crop beans have declined by 7.7% in the area compared to the previous crop and estimated production of 1.1 million tons.

The company also cited data on the closure of the winter crop in December, which includes oats, canola, rye, barley, wheat, and triticale. Conab pointed out better results than in the previous harvest, even with climatic adversities in the main producing regions. Wheat production was 27.3% higher than the previous harvest, reaching 5.4 million tons.

IBGE

The IBGE number is the third forecast for the 2019 crop (January to December) and includes cereals, legumes and oilseeds production, which was estimated at 233.4 million tons. According to the institute, the growth is mainly due to higher estimates of corn production, which grew 8.4% over the previous year; cotton, with production of 5.3 million tons, 6.6% more than in 2018; and soybean, 118.8 million tons, which is 0.8% higher than in 2018. Falling crops are rice and beans.

Regarding the area to be harvested, the forecast is 62.2 million hectares, 2.1% more than in the previous harvest. In 2018, according to IBGE, Mato Grosso led the national grain production, followed by Parana and Rio Grande do Sul.