Unemployment rates in Brazil will fall in 2019 and 2020. But the advance in job creation will be slow and the country runs the risk of having to wait “years“ until it sees rates return to pre-recession levels. The Brazilian unemployment rate is still more than twice the world average, of around 5% in 2019.
The International Labor Organization (ILO) assessment, in its annual report, points to a 12.5% unemployment rate in Brazil by the end of 2018. By 2019, the index may fall to 12.2% and by 2020, that rate would be 11,7%.
According to the ILO, the fall in the unemployment rate is linked to the recovery of the economy. In 2018, the expansion was only 0.7%. But the entity’s outlook is for growth to be 2.4 percent in 2019.
In absolute numbers, the total number of unemployed Brazilians will increase from 13.5 million people in 2017 to 13.3 million by the end of 2018. By 2019, the total will reach 13.1 million and, in 2020, the number will be 12,7 million.
Despite the fall in unemployment, the ILO‘s research department estimates that a return to 7% unemployment rates in Brazil will not occur in the short term. The index had been registered before 2014.
For this number to improve faster, a strong increase in demand would have to be recorded in the national economy. Nor does the ILO believe that labor reform can immediately give a boost and its results have to have waited for the coming years.
Brazilian rates, even falling, remain among the highest in the G-20, the group with the largest economies in the world. In Mexico, unemployment is expected to be 3.4% in 2019, against 3.9% in the US and 6.1% in Canada. In Japan, the index will be 2.4% against 3.7% in Korea.
According to the ILO, Australia should close the year at a rate of 5.3%, against 4.4% in Indonesia, 3.2% in Germany, 3.8% in the UK and 4.5% in Russia. France, Italy, and Turkey have unemployment rates ranging from 9% to 11%.
Overall, the ILO estimates that 172 million people were unemployed by the end of 2018, equivalent to a global rate of 5%. This is the first time since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, global levels have returned to the level of 5%. For 2019 and 2020, the rate is expected to remain unchanged.