Carnival has passed and the year should finally start in Brazil, which may also lead to more business with soybeans, according to market consultant Vlamir Brandalizze of Brandalizze Consulting. For him, new closures of the new crop, which had been scarce in recent weeks, could intensify in the coming days.
“We will tend to see more closing pressure on the Brazilian new crop through the exchange for inputs. The old harvest may give more movement if there is new and positive news of the dispute between the US and China, since it may bring an appeal in Chicago“, explains the executive.
However, if the pace of relations between Chinese and Americans continues to be on the tightrope, “we are going from internal closures to the industry, which should return to shopping and now with strong crushing activity,“ Brandalizze adds.
Among exports, the pace should also remain strong, he said, and may even bring better prizes in the coming days. “And so we are in the new commercial year,“ says Brandalizze.
Since the beginning of March in Paranagua, the March / 19 delivery position has been 35 cents on the Chicago values, while June already carries 52 cents for Brazilian soy. Thus, the latest price references in the terminals still worked in the range of R $ 79.00 to R $ 80.00 per bag, also feeling the oscillations of the dollar. For deliveries in the middle of the year, the calls went up to between R $ 81.00 and R $ 82.00.
In February, for a further month, Brazilian soybean exports hit a record high and reached 6,091.1 million tonnes, according to figures from Secex (Secretariat of Foreign Trade). The volume is much larger than last February when Brazil exported 3,509.4 million tons. Throughout the complex soybean, Brazil‘s accumulated exports are 10.56 million tons.
As the consultant explains, Chinese buyers, even at a slower pace, remain focused on the Brazilian product with the commercial war with the US still in progress, which changes the scene of the global soy trade this year. “Usually, the first two months of the year are weak for soybeans, but this year the accelerator is pulled because China is aggressive buying in our ports.“
According to Cepea, of the total exported by Brazil in February, 82.4% – 5.02 million tons – went to China. Still, according to the institution, these accelerated shipments of soybeans in Brazil helped push prices up the national stage. “In addition to the delivery of a forward contract, now, spot market negotiations have also begun to gain strength, especially due to the appreciation of the dollar against the Real, which makes the domestic product more attractive to importers,“ said the researchers.
Last Friday (Mar. 8th), Agricultural News released an image of Reuters’s Refinitiv Eikon system, showing a considerable line of ships loaded with soybeans – and other products – trailing from Brazil to China. These are loads of purchases made a few months ago, with shipments planned for this time of year.