Brazil is expected to produce 117.6 million tonnes of soybeans this year, said ABIOVE – Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industries Association on Monday, up 0.6 percent from its previous estimate, as the association began to see exports the country because of African swine fever in China.
The upward revision from the perspective of soybean production comes after several consultancies and the state-owned Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) increase their numbers, given the regularization of the climate from February, which helped to compensate part of the losses due to the drought in the turn of the year.
Still, production estimated by the Abiove is 4.5 percent lower than the record for 2018, calculated by the entity at 123.1 million tons.
Despite a higher production forecast, Abiove cut its forecast for Brazil’s soybean exports in 2019 to 68.1 million tonnes, from 70.1 million in the March forecast and a historic 83.6 million in 2018.
According to the association, the cut reflects “the outbreak of African swine fever in China, which affects local meat production and impacts the entire global food chain.”
Reflecting higher production and weaker shipments, Abiove raised its estimate of final soybean stocks to 5.6 million tonnes from 2.9 million previously.
At the same time, the company made adjustments in the balance of supply and demand for soybean oil, now forecasting an export of 700,000 tons, of 500,000 in the previous forecast, “due to the increase in international demand, especially in China.”
For the bran, Abiove expects exports of 16.2 million tons in 2019.
Total sales of soybeans and their derivatives in Brazil this year are expected to generate 30.7 billion dollars in foreign exchange, down from almost 41 billion in 2018, Abiove said.